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How Accurate is Your Accuracy?

A Framework to Think About Forecast Accuracy Since one of the main values of forecasting is to assist better planning and decision-making, that could understandably lead one to think “We want 100% accuracy, and if that’s impossible, then at least 99%!”. This “magical number” threshold, while a good thing to aspire too, can hold you …

How Much Data Is Needed To Start Forecasting?

As a rule of thumb, I personally like to have 3 times more historical data relative to my forecast horizon (the distance into the future I want to forecast). However, this amount of data is not necessarily a hard stop when you use simpler forecasting methods such as ARIMA and exponential smoothing. The reason I …